Incumbency is key to winning an election or reelection, as most House members know. The book Congressional Elections by Paul Herrnson points out that almost all House members run for reelection unless age, illness, or scandal is affecting the candidate, and for the most part incumbents win not only their parties primary but also their districts election. This is due to the fact that with incumbency there also comes name recognition, party backing and finances.
For Rep. Murphy this is the case, Murphy was able to win his parties nomination uncontested for reelection, while Sam Caligiuri had to run in the districts Republican primary. Murphy also had a clear head start over Caligiuri, just by people knowing his name. Personally I am from the 5th district and know that about twice a month there was always something in the mailbox from the office of Rep. Murphy.
Murphy’s ads were in fact paid by the taxpayers, which is another tool that Murphy has over Caligiuri. Also today Murphy has been able to raise almost $2.1 million, and as of late June still have $1.5 million on hand. Over 30% has come from PAC contributions totaling around $700,000 and has no personal financing funds tied up. While Caligiuri has raised almost $850,000, and has only $80,000 at hand, and has only received $9,000 from PAC and has self funded around $4,500 to his campaign.
By looking at the numbers it is clear that the incumbent factor has been helping Murphy twofold, but at the same time a race is not all about the numbers, well not until election day; as Congressional Elections points out it is about where a candidate stands on the topics and how they affect their prospective voter. The only advice I can give Caligiuri to try and overcome Murphy’s finances and gain as many votes has he can is to appear as ‘Right’ as he can in order not to alienate any Republican/Independent voters. For Murphy the best thing he can keep doing is to make sure his name is out there and known by the voters of his district which can be seen in Murphy’s 'Forty-one Towns in Forty-one Days' (Link to: Forty-one Towns in Forty-one Days), which Caligiuri challenged in an open letter to Murphy with 'Forty-one Debates in Forty-one Towns'.
You seem very certain that Murphy's incumbency puts him in a very advantageous position over Caligiuri. I'm curious as to what advantages Caligiuri might have over Murphy. Overall I do agree that Murphy does seem to be in a more comfortable position as the incumbent.
ReplyDeleteYou're right. While incumbency in itself is a huge advantage to Murphy, it is more of a disadvantage to neophyte, Caligiuri who also lacks name recognition. Name recognition is a MAJOR advantage that one candidate usually has over the other. The race that I'm following, Illinois' 10th District, does not have an incumbent running but does have a candidate who is running for the third time in a row [Dan Seals, Democrat]. His name recognition alone won't help him win this election, but as you mentioned, a platform that satisfies as many voters as possible is a strategic element in taking the lead for both new comers and veteran candidates.
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