Crunching The Numbers...

            In chapter nine of Congressional Election by Herrnson, he gives us the tables for both challenger and incumbent predictors of House vote shares (p.247 p.253). Using these tables we are able to mathematically guess which candidate would be most likely to win the election on November second. In this post I will apply the incumbent factors to Murphy and the challenger figures for Caligiuri and see which one has the highest probability of winning the election.

            Starting with Murphy, his base vote is higher at 57.28 due to the fact that he is the running incumbent. Within the 5^th district of Connecticut registered Democrats outweigh registered Republicans about 29% to 24%, which is a 5 point difference which adds 0.75 to Murphys base making it 58.03. The next thing that applies to Murphy we must look at how much Caligiur has spent on his campaign. Which is about $1.1 million, and because of that Murphy loses 9.24 points off his base bringing him down to 48.79. But because Murphy has received the most endorsements from local media and because of the partisan tide he gains back 7.24, which leaves him with a score of 56.03.

            Now for Caligiuri because he is the challenger he starts off with a much smaller base of 25.29. Starting right off Caligiuri gains points for taking part in a contested primary and the message that most of his ads focus on he gains 6.8 points bringing Caligiuri to 32.09. The next two gains focus on money both spent by Caligiuri and Murphy, because Caligiui has matched $1.1 million to Murphy’s $2.3 million, Caligiuri adds two gains totaling 16.29 points, pushing Caligiur to a total of 48.38.

            Using the numbers from above it is easy to see that while this was a close call for Murphy with 56.03 points it seems as though Caligiuri with 48.38 points wont have enough to take away reelection. Knowing that I have done the math out there are still some factors in which Caligiuri would be able to pull out a win but they would need to be on a large scale, the best fitting one that I can think of is that the push for ‘change’ in the country gets more Republican votes out then Democratic ones. But the only thing we can do now is sit back and wait for polls to open and find out who won Connecticut’s fifth.

Ten Days and Counting

With ten days and counting, things have never looked more troubling for Murphy. Within the last week Murphy’s team has put together a new better looking website about a month after Caligiuri cam out with his new one. There are only a number of ways that Murphy can still pull this reelection off. One of them by just relying heavily on name recognition, the second by just flooding the market with his name and who he is, and lastly by making sure he is here for the district and not for his job.

The best thing that Murphy has going for him in the last ten days is his name, within the fifth district his name is known, but that is where the trouble lies. Are the people that know his name fore the wrong reason coming to the polls this November second, going to out weigh those who know his name and are going to vote for him or just vote for the person with the most ‘famous’ name. The second thing that Murphy can do, and has been doing is to flood the market with his name and who he is. Which can be seen in the two of his new TV ads Murphy one called 'Business' and the other ‘Still New’ in which Murphy talks about how he is still new to the job of being a Congressman and what little he has been able to do will not compare to what he wants to do for the district.

The reason as to why Murphy has every right to worry about his campaign and how it is doing over all can be seen once again in the amount of money, this time for once not in favor of Murphy. From July to September, only looking at individual help contributions Murphy took in about $522,000 while Caligiuri took in about $435,000, which is about a gap of about $86,000, which is the smallest gap to date. Caligiuri points out that Murphy claims to have the support of “the people” but when in reality only a small fraction of Murphy’s money comes from “the people”, over $900,000 in contributions came from interest groups, which Caligiuri has no problem pointing out on his website. (Link)

These next ten days are go time for both Murphy and Caligiuri, ten day in the political world is like ten weeks for use. A lot can happen, but the only thing that is for sure is that come November second we will find out whether Murphy had anything to worry about or if this was just excitement driven up by the media or if the fifth district of Connecticut will have a new Congressman and giving New England, its only Republican House member.

Trouble On the Horizon For the Democrats?

As the last few weeks to the midterm campaign season come to a close there is even more on the line than there was before. Seems that the Democratic Party has awoken from its nap to find nothing but utter ciaos and trouble. It is easy to see that the Democrats have pushed their help button and they are trying to make up lost ground, which they never thought was lost in the first place. This can be seen in a push of new marketing and call for support, and also in new disputes over numbers. While the Democrats were napping, the Republicans came to the realization that the movement that put the Democrats in charge are not going to show up in November, which dramatically leveled the playing fields.

On October 6^th Connecticut’s fifth went from being predicted as ‘likely Democrat’ to ‘toss up’ over night, according to RealClearPolitics.com (link), and also CNN.com by placing the CT-5^th as a ‘race to watch’ (link). The Democratic Party has noticed that not only Murphy, but also other Democratic candidates have started to slip in the polls. The only way that I see that the Democrats can fix this is to start spending their candidates massive amounts of cash on hand, and try to drown less funded Republican hopefuls and changers. Murphy’s team has made sure that both of his commercial ads are being seen on TV,  and also Murphy has increased his print ads, not only those funded by him but now there are ones paid by the Connecticut Democratic State Central Committee (link). 

The problem is that numbers don’t lie, and according to CTCapitalRport.com (link), new poll results show that in CT-5 Caligiuri is leading 49.7% to Murphys 44.3% (poll data). This data came out the day before both RealClearPolitics.com and CNN.com changed their minds on the possible outcome to the race in CT-5.

Murphy’s campaign does not think the poll is a reliable source, even though the rest of the country does, which seems a bit desperate for his campaign, what seems even more desperate is that Murphy’s website as October 7^th has been going with a story that Murphy is leading by 14 full points (link). Though this would be good for the Democrats, it is hard to believe. Caligiuri has been gaining name recognition even in Murphy’s hometown of Cheshire where Caligiuri has several huge signs larger than any of those Murphy has out. With time running out this is the perfect chance for Murphy to kill Caligiuri’s campaign, or the perfect time for Caligiuri to make a fool of Murphy.

As Seen On TV....

             In chapter eight of Congressional Elections Paul Herrnson talks about campaign communication and how campaigns advertise their candidate. Herrnson points out that TV stations reportedly made $2.25 billion from political advertisements in 2006. Televised ads are a great took for a campaign, Robert Teeter says, “80 or 90 percent of what people retain from a TV ad is visual…If you have the visual right, you have the commercial right.” (p.222) Herrnson also says, “65% of House campaigns use either broadcast or cable television, and that percentage would be larger if the costs were not so high.”(p.222)

            Given the high cost Caligiuri was able to make one on his limited budget and unveiled it this week, just after Murphy released his second ad for the 2010 campaign. In Murphy’s first TV ad titled Neighbor, it talks about how he is going door to door to keep in touch, and that Murphy knows things are tough, also that Murphy is working with Republicans to pass stronger Made in America laws. (Murphy's First 2010 Ad ) In Murphy’s second ad titled Ansonia, Murphy says that he worked with Republicans to help a Waterbury business, showing that once he heard of a problem he was quick to help with a solution. (Murphy's Second 2010 Ad) Caligiuri’s first TV ad just points out the flaws of Murphy but not in a tasteless way but by just pointing out the facts. (Caligiuri's Ad)

Though Caligiuri’s ad just came out this week, I have seen both of Murphy’s ads already on the TV. This could be because unlike Murphy who has not updated his facebook since 2008 Caligiuri is always updating it and keeping people posted because it is not only easy to do but also virtually free of cost. John Kraushaar from the National Journal (National Journal Article) points out that the cost of airing an ad is not created equally, “There are a handful of districts where the cost to advertise on television is so prohibitive that even well-funded members won't be able to utilize their fundraising advantages. Many of these districts are along the Northeast corridor -- in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey in the New York City media market.” Kraushaar also points out how this might help out Caligiuri by saying, “These races are fought on cable television, radio and through direct mail -- much cheaper ways to get out a message, well within the limited means of challengers. Democratic incumbents like Jim Himes, Chris Murphy, John Adler, John Hall, Tim Bishop and Loretta Sanchez won't be able to massively outspend their opponents even though they have significantly more money.”